2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Predicts Above-Normal Activity
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its annual outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. According to the report, there is a high likelihood of above-normal activity this year. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, and experts predict a range of 14 to 21 named storms. Out of these, 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes.
Factors Driving Above-Normal Activity
Several climate factors are expected to contribute to above-normal activity in the Atlantic this hurricane season. They include:
- El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or trend towards La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity.
- Reduced vertical wind shear
- Coupled with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
- An enhanced west African monsoon that supports stronger African Easterly Waves.
- Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
NOAA’s Role In Providing Early Forecasts and Warnings
NOAA’s experts will remain ahead of developing hurricanes and tropical storms with accurate and timely forecasts, providing the necessary warnings to keep communities safe. During the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will collect valuable data for forecasters, and computer models will be used to predict storm intensity and trajectory.
Upgrades To Hurricane Weather Research And Forecasting System (HWRF) and Hurricanes In a Multi-scale Ocean Coupled Non-hydrostatic Model (HMON)
To be better prepared, NOAA will upgrade the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer. HWRF will incorporate new data from satellites and radar from NOAA’s coastal Doppler data network to help produce better forecasts of hurricane track and intensity during the critical watch and warning time frame. HMON will undergo enhancements to include higher resolution, improved physics, and coupling with ocean models.
Autonomous Diving Hurricane Gliders To Observe Conditions In The Atlantic Ocean And Caribbean Sea
NOAA and the U.S. Navy will deploy a fleet of autonomous diving hurricane gliders during the 2022 hurricane season. These gliders will observe conditions in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and intensely traveled areas where hurricanes tend to form. The data will help forecasters make more accurate predictions on storm intensity and trajectory.
Efforts To Improve Critical Services During The Hurricane Season
In addition to the above, NOAA is committed to enhancing products and tools needed during the hurricane season. The Cosmopolitan-2 (COSMIC-2) satellites will begin feeding data into weather models, providing more accurate intensity tracking to boost forecast accuracy. NOAA will also upgrade the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models in preparation for the 2022 hurricane season.
Implication of COVID-19 on Hurricane Preparedness And Emergency Plan
Due to the widespread pandemic, natural disasters are more challenging to deal with now. Social distancing and other regulations to curb the spread of COVID-19 may affect the disaster preparedness plan you had in place, including evacuation routes, shelters, go-kits, and more. As such, it is essential to reassess every plan and make necessary adjustments. Additionally, emergency apps such as the FEMA app will keep you informed of any emergencies during hurricane season.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Forecast For The Hurricane Season
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has a 65% chance of being above-normal, a 25% chance of being near-normal, and a 10% chance of being below-normal. The season extends from June 1 to November 30 and expects a range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes.
As we brace for the 2022 hurricane season, it is essential to take early preparation and understand your risks. The men and women at NOAA are ready to provide the life-saving forecasts and warnings that the public relies on, making it imperative to trust their reports. As hurricane season begins, we must continue to monitor NOAA’s reports, take action on early warnings and be prepared to keep our families safe during a potentially active hurricane season.
1. Will hurricanes become more frequent due to climate change?
The frequency of hurricanes is still subject to scientific debate. It is, however, widely known that sea levels are rising due to climate change, making storm surges potentially more dangerous.
2. Can we predict where hurricanes will make landfall?
Hurricane forecasting can predict where a storm will make landfall, but that accuracy varies. Factors, such as a hurricane’s size and intensity, affect the prediction’s accuracy.
3. What must be in your emergency kit during a hurricane?
Your emergency kit should contain essentials such as non-perishable food, drinking water, a flashlight, a first aid kit, batteries, and sanitation items.
4. What should you do during a hurricane?
Stay inside, stay away from windows, avoid going outside, charge your phone, and monitor the NOAA warnings. If advised to evacuate, prepare to do so and ensure you already have a predetermined plan for where to go.
5. What should you do after a hurricane has passed?
Check for damages, turn off your home’s gas, water, and electricity, and beware of any downed power lines.