Researchers and NASA officials are brainstorming ways to continue researching Mars in the wake of the planetary science decadal survey, which is anticipated to lessen the agency’s focus on the Red Planet.
A new decadal survey for planetary sciences will be released by the National Academies on April 19. Priorities for planetary scientific missions from 2023 to 2032 will be established in the study.
Decadal surveys on planetary research have suggested rovers that can store samples for subsequent return to Earth as their top priority in major or “flagship” missions since they were first issued in 2011. The Perseverance rover is now gathering samples as a result of NASA implementing this proposal as part of Mars 2020.
Officials at a meeting in Pasadena, California, in late March, admitted that a new flagship-class Mars mission would be unlikely to be the top goal of the next decadal survey, which will begin in 2018. A big trip to Mars in this decade is improbable, even if the ongoing Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign to return the samples Perseverance is caching is successful.
A second consideration, he said, was NASA’s plan to send humans to Mars by the late 2030s. Huge research missions aren’t likely to take precedence, he said.
NASA’s Mars Exploration Program Director, Eric Ianson, started the conference by saying, “MSR is going to be the top priority for NASA relating to Mars in the coming years and it looks doubtful that the next large-scale mission that the decadal proposes would include Mars as a goal. Perseverance or MRO, the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter mission that was launched in 2005, will not be able to afford a flagship-level mission.
The International Mars Ice Mapper (I-MIM), an orbiter equipped with radar to hunt for underlying ice deposits of interest to scientists and human exploration planners, was the only other big Mars mission that NASA has announced beyond MSR. Canada, Italy, and Japan would all contribute to the expedition, but NASA would be in charge of overall operations.
However, NASA’s fiscal year 2023 budget plan eliminated funding for I-MIM just before the summit. “The budget terminates NASA financial support for the Mars Ice Mapper because of the need to fund higher priorities, especially to offset cost escalation predicted from the Mars Sample Return Mission,” the agency’s budget statement noted.
I-MIM program executive Rick Davis spoke at the conference about the mission’s potential for solar electric propulsion as well as the deployment of a communications relay in Mars orbit to support later missions.
Davis’ presentation was well received. “Some of our programs are running behind schedule, including some of the highest-priority ones. When asked about the budget plan, he replied, “That’s the driving force behind the budget proposal,” adding that Congress would have to reinstate funds for the program.
In the end, Ianson attributed the decision to a “total burden on the budget for various initiatives”. For a budget to suggest a reduction in a mission, and then for Congress to reinstate, it is not unusual. I-MIM could not be reactivated in this manner, he said. According to him, effective efforts to recover financing for astronomy and Earth science projects “depend on the sort of lobbying there is.” There does not appear to be significant support for Ice Mapper in Congress, according to “It’s not as evident to me.”
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People at the meeting were banking on orbiters and landers of a lower size to answer important scientific questions. The Mars Architecture Strategy Working Group (MASWG) and the Keck Institute for Space Studies at Caltech both decided recently that low-cost trips to Mars were both possible and valuable for scientific purposes.
The chair of the MASWG study, Bruce Jakosky of the University of Colorado, claimed that missions with a total lifespan cost of between $100 million and $300 million were possible. Missions in this range, he noted, “have the potential to accomplish tremendous research”.
There have been a few recent examples of this, he said. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates plans to launch Hope, a Mars orbiter that will cost $200 million. ESCAPADE, a $55 million smallsat mission to Mars slated for launch in 2024, is also being funded by NASA.
ESCAPADE’s chief investigator, Rob Lillis of the University of California Berkeley, warned that his mission may not be relevant to other low-cost Mars missions. For the mission’s research of the solar wind’s interaction with the Martian atmosphere, low-cost equipment with low data rates can be used. Rocket Lab, which is providing the Photon buses for the dual ESCAPADE spacecraft, has also agreed to keep the mission’s budget in check.
According to him, $55 million is “too little” for most “realistic” missions. In general, “It’s not the correct expense ceiling for Mars missions,” “Jakosky concurred.” “We anticipated there would be more and more possibilities to undertaking meaningful work at approximately $100 million,” he explained. It’s possible to fit “a wide variety of capabilities” and “a vast range of boxes” within the $100–300 million price range.
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