NOAA Predicts Near-Normal Hurricane Activity in the Atlantic in 2023
NOAA forecasters have predicted a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2023, with a 40% chance of a near-normal season. The prediction has been made in light of the various contributing factors, some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it. NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms in the region, including 5 to 9 hurricanes, with 1 to 4 major hurricanes. NOAA Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo believes that the department’s critical investments in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling will facilitate even more accurate forecasts this year.
Factors that Influence the Prediction of Hurricane Activity in the Atlantic
NOAA scientists have considered various factors to make the prediction of near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Although there were La Niña events for the last three hurricane seasons, there is a high likelihood that El Niño will develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. However, this could be offset due to favorable conditions, which include an above-normal west African monsoon that will help produce a few stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Additionally, warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea could fuel storm development. These factors are part of the longer-term variability in the Atlantic atmosphere and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development.
Current Year’s Forecast
Probability of Hurricane Season
NOAA predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season in the Atlantic region during the 2023 hurricane season.
Number of Named Storms
NOAA anticipates a range of 12 to 17 total named storms in the Atlantic region, which have winds of 39 mph or higher during the 2023 hurricane season.
Number of Hurricanes
Of the total named storms, NOAA expects that 5 to 9 will transform into hurricanes, with wind speeds of 74 mph or higher.
Number of Major Hurricanes
The predicted number of major hurricanes during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is one to four. Category 3, 4 or 5, these major hurricanes have wind speeds of 111 mph or higher.
NOAA’s Upgrades and Improvements
NOAA is preparing to implement a series of upgrades and improvements this year, such as:
Increased Computing Capacity
NOAA will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20%. This increase in computing capability will enable NOAA to run more complex forecast models, including significant model upgrades this hurricane season.
Operationalizing a New Hurricane Forecast Model
In late June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. Running in tandem with other models, HAFS will eventually become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program and NOAA’s National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center jointly created this new model.
Probabilistic Storm Surge Model Upgrade
NOAA has already performed the Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade on May 2, which advances storm surge forecasting for the contiguous U.S. Additionally, the new upgrades for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands include forecasts for surge, tide, and waves. This model provides different flooding scenarios, including a near-worst-case scenario, to enable forecasters to prepare and respond accordingly for all potential outcomes.
Additional Upgrades or New Tools
Other upgrades or new tools that NOAA emphasizes as valuable for hurricane analysis and forecasting include the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphic and the extension of the forecast range from five to seven days.
How to Prepare for Hurricane Season in Florida
Florida is the most hurricane-prone state in the U.S. during the Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30 annually. With 120 hits since 1851, it has almost double that of Texas, the second most hurricane-prone state. Here are some tips for preparing for hurricane season in Florida:
Before the Storm
- Create an emergency plan for family and pets
- Prepare an emergency kit with basic necessities like water and non-perishable food
- Store important documents in a waterproof container or digitally
- Sign up for emergency storm alerts for your community or county
- Purchase flood insurance to cover hurricane-related flooding
During the Storm
- Follow weather alerts and stay clear of the areas impacted by hurricane winds and flooding
- Contact disaster assistance if you need help or find a local shelter
- Check the status of road conditions during a flood on Florida 511
After the Storm
- Listen to local officials and return home only when it’s safe to do so
- Wear protective clothing, including gloves and face coverings, while cleaning up mold or other debris from your home
- Get in touch with your flood insurance or home insurance company to file a claim, if needed
- Document property damage using videos and photographs
Conclusion
NOAA predicts a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic region for 2023, with a 40% chance of a near-average hurricane season. Although various contributing factors that suppress hurricane development are expected, some favorable circumstances can fuel stronger and longer-lived storms. NOAA is also upgrading and improving its systems and models to better forecast and monitor hurricane developments. If you live in Florida, and coastal areas nearby, you must be equipped with emergency plans and flood and home insurance to mitigate hurricane-related damages.
FAQs
What Is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?
The Atlantic hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30 annually.
What Are the Factors Predicting Hurricane Activity in the Atlantic?
The prediction of hurricane activity in the Atlantic considers several factors such as La Niña, El Niño, West African monsoon, and sea surface temperature.
How Many Named Storms are Predicted for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
NOAA predicts a range of 12-17 named storms in the Atlantic region during the 2023 hurricane season.
What Are the Best Precautions to Take Before a Hurricane Hits Florida?
People should have a plan for their family, prepare a basic emergency kit, store important documents, sign up for emergency alerts, and purchase flood insurance before a hurricane hits Florida.
What Should One Do After a Hurricane Hits Florida?
After a hurricane, people must follow local officials’ instructions to stay safe. They should wear protective clothing, document property damage and contact home or flood insurance company for claims, if needed.
