2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Predictions and Forecasts

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 every year. Forecasters and researchers alike are predicting the level of activity that might occur during the 2023 hurricane season. In this article, we will take an in-depth look at the predictions and forecasts being made for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Current Predictions and Forecasts for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State University’s Predictions

According to the forecast released by Colorado State University’s team, there will be slightly below-average activity in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. They predicted 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes for 2023. This forecast is slightly below average for the Atlantic basin.

North Carolina State University’s Predictions

North Carolina State University’s predictions regarding the Atlantic hurricane season do not differ greatly from the predictions made by Colorado State University’s team. Researchers at North Carolina State University say that there will be 11 to 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, including between six and eight hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s Prediction

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center also predicts near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this year. According to their prediction, there is a 40% chance for a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and another 30% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 4 major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

Factors Affecting the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

El Niño Pattern

The El Niño pattern is one of the crucial factors influencing the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasts and predictions indicate a chance of El Niño weather patterns taking over by late summer or early autumn. El Niño can weaken Atlantic hurricane formation, creating less powerful storms in the Atlantic basin.

Local Conditions

While El Niño can weaken the Atlantic hurricane season, other factors can offset its influence. For instance, there are favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin that could see above-normal activity despite the potential for the El Niño pattern’s weakening. These conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which create more energy to fuel storm development.

NOAA’s Enhancements for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Expanded Computing Capacity

NOAA will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20% in order to improve and run more complex forecast models, including significant model upgrades.

Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)

HAFS is a new system that will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. A retrospective analysis of tropical storms and hurricanes from the 2020-2022 seasons shows that this model has a 10-15% improvement in track forecasts over existing operational models.

Probabilistic Storm Surge Model Upgrade

The upgrade provides forecasters with the likelihood or probability of various flooding scenarios, including a near worst-case scenario, to help communities prepare for all potential outcomes.

Extended Forecast Range

The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphic has expanded the forecast range from five to seven days.

Conclusion

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have slightly below-average activity, with the potential for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes forming. Weather patterns and local conditions will influence this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, and forecast enhancments by NOAA will provide further insight into predicted weather scenarios and potential outcomes.

FAQs

1. When does the Atlantic hurricane season begin and end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year.

2. What is El Niño?

El Niño is a weather pattern characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It can contribute to weaker Atlantic hurricane formation.

3. How many named storms are expected in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?

Forecasts predict 13 named storms for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

4. What is NOAA’s prediction for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?

NOAA predicts near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this year, with a range of 12 to 17 total named storms, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 4 major hurricanes.

5. How will NOAA improve hurricane forecasts this year?

NOAA will expand its operational supercomputing system by 20%, implement new hurricane forecast models, and extend forecast range to seven days.