What to Expect From the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season – Forecasts and Predictions
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is quickly approaching, and meteorologists have already begun releasing their yearly predictions for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes as well as forecasting the likelihood of a potentially damaging hurricane season. Here’s what you need to know about the forecasts and predictions surrounding the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Colorado State University Predicts a Slightly Below-Average Season
Colorado State University released its Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity Forecast in April 2023, predicting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. While these numbers are only slightly below the season’s average, meteorologists believe El Niño, expected to take over by late summer or early fall, will help suppress major hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic basin.
North Carolina State University’s Predictions Align with Colorado State University’s
North Carolina State University’s predictions, released on the same day as Colorado State’s, didn’t deviate too far from the forecasts given by Colorado State, with meteorologists predicting between 11 and 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, six to eight strong enough to become hurricanes, and two to three growing into major hurricanes.
NOAA’s Forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also predicted near-normal levels of hurricane activity for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicted anywhere from 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, with 1-4 of those being considered major hurricanes.
Factors Influencing 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Competing factors are at play in determining this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season. After three hurricane seasons with La Niña present, NOAA scientists predict the onset of El Niño this summer. El Niño can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, which could offset other local factors that are conducive to hurricane development, such as an above-normal west African monsoon and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
NOAA’s New Hurricane Forecast Model
This year, NOAA is implementing a range of upgrades and improvements to improve forecasting accuracy, including expanding the capacity of its supercomputing system by 20%. In late June, NOAA operationalizes a new hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. This season, the model will run in tandem with the Hurricanes in a Multi-Scale Ocean-Coupled Non-Hydrostatic Model and Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model System. NOAA administrators claim that this new model has a 10-15% improvement in track forecasts over existing models.
Preparing for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The official start of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. It’s essential to stay alert and up-to-date on weather forecasts and official advisories. The National Hurricane Center advises homeowners to follow their local evacuation route immediately when local authorities issue an evacuation order. Create a home emergency plan and supply kit with anything you might need to survive without electricity or running water.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is already stirring up conversations and concerns among meteorologists. While slightly below-average levels of hurricane activity are forecast, it’s still important to prepare and stay alert throughout the season. NOAA’s upgrades and improvements to its hurricane forecast model mean that emergency managers and communities will have even more accurate information to prepare for and respond to any hurricanes that may strike.
Q: When does the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season start?
A: The official start of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30.
Q: What is El Niño, and how does it affect hurricane season?
A: El Niño is a weather pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels. The phenomenon is known to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity but can strengthen hurricane seasons in the central and eastern Pacific.
Q: What is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?
A: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is a scientific agency under the United States Department of Commerce that studies the Earth’s systems, oceans, and atmosphere.
Q: How accurate are seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A: These forecasts provide accurate estimates and broad ranges of potential activity throughout the season, but they cannot predict specific storms or where they will make landfall.
Q: What should I do to prepare for the hurricane season?
A: Create a home emergency plan and supply kit with anything you might need to survive without electricity or running water. Stay up-to-date on weather forecasts and official advisories and follow local evacuation routes immediately when local authorities issue an evacuation order.