Understanding the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season is about to start, and there is a lot to know about what to expect this year. This article provides all the necessary information needed to prepare for the upcoming season.
Predictions For The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Colorado State University’s Forecast
According to Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology project team, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have slightly below-average activity. The team forecasts 13 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of which will be major.
North Carolina State University’s Forecast
North Carolina State University predicts that 11 to 15 named storms will occur in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Between six and eight of these named storms may develop into hurricanes, while two to three could become major hurricanes.
NOAA’s Forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting above-average hurricane activity in 2023, with a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The center is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to ten could become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes.
How Climate Factors Contribute To The Storms
La Niña
The ongoing La Niña is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season. This factor is one of the contributors to the increased activity the season is expected to experience.
Warmer-Than-Average Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea surface temperature is one of the ingredients necessary to fuel hurricanes. In the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, sea surface temperature is much warmer than usual. The warmer the ocean, the more fuel available for storms to tap into; hence the potential for a busy hurricane season.
Weaker Atlantic Trade Winds
According to scientists, weaker Atlantic trade winds may contribute to more storm formation since they allow for more warm moist air to rise up, leading to the formation of more storms.
Enhanced West African Monsoon
An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed most of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes during the seasons.
2023 Atlantic Storm Names
The following is a list of the storm names that the World Meteorological Organization has pre-selected for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney.
Preparedness for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Understanding Hurricane Categories
The National Weather Service defined a hurricane as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher. Hurricane categories range from one to five. A Category 3 or higher is considered a major hurricane.
National Hurricane Center Advisories
A hurricane watch indicates the possibility that a region could experience hurricane conditions within 48 hours, while a hurricane warning indicates that sustained winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 36 hours.
Early Preparation
Early preparation is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready. NOAA works around the clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.
Conclusion
In conclusion, experts predict that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have slightly below-average activity. However, it is essential to take appropriate measures to prepare for any eventualities. Understanding the climate factors that contribute to the storms, storm categories, NHC advisories, and early preparation are vital tips to keep safe ahead of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. When does the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season start and end?
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
2. What is NOAA’s prediction for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
NOAA predicts that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will have above-average activity, with 14 to 21 named storms, six to ten of which could become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes.
3. Why is there more uncertainty in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
El Niño has contributed to more uncertainty in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
4. What are the factors necessary to fuel hurricanes?
Sea surface temperature is one of the ingredients necessary to fuel hurricanes. The warmer the ocean, the more fuel available for storms to tap into.
5. What is the importance of early preparation for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
Early preparation is essential to stay climate-ready and hurricane-resilient. NOAA works around the clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.
