NOAA Predicts Near-Normal 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Introduction
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2023. The six-month period, which begins on 1st June and ends on 30th November, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA estimates 12 to 17 named storms of at least 39 mph, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph, including a minor likelihood of 1 to 4 major hurricanes of category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Competition of Factors that Suppress and Fuel Storms
There are several factors that affect this year’s forecast. NOOA scientists predict a high probability of El Nino to develop in the summer. This could suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. However, favorable conditions in the Atlantic Basin, such as the above-normal West African monsoon and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, may offset El Nino’s potential influence on storm development. Atlantic basin conditions conducive to hurricane development, such as high-activity eras for Atlantic hurricanes since 1995, are part of longer-term atmospheric and oceanic variability.
New Improvements in Hurricane Modeling
NOAA has invested in new scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modelling, enabling it to offer more accurate forecasts for this year’s hurricane season. It has expanded the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20% and will use this to provide more accurate and complex forecast models. NOAA will operationalize a new hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS), from late June. NOAA will also expand the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook to seven days instead of five days, beginning this year.
Upgraded Storm Surge Model
NOAA recently upgraded the probabilistic storm surge model to improve storm surge forecasting for the contiguous US and provide new forecasts for surge, tide, and waves for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Now, forecasters can run the model for two storms simultaneously, thereby preparing communities for all possible outcomes, including worst-case scenarios.
Hurricane Resilience and Climate Readiness
NOAA advises that early preparation and understanding different risks are essentia. This allows for better hurricane resilience and climate readiness, particularly for communities in the path of storms. NOAA experts work around the clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that people can use to stay informed during the hurricane season.
Conclusion
NOAA predicts that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal. It recommends communities to take proactive steps to create hurricane resilience and climate readiness based on the NOAA forecast and knowledge of the various risks involved.
FAQs
What is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
NOAA is the US federal agency responsible for the study of the oceans and the atmosphere. It provides daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings, and climate monitoring to help keep American citizens informed about the changing weather conditions and make informed decisions based on the NOAA forecast.
When does the Hurricane season begin in the Atlantic Ocean?
The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
What are the likely hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic season?
NOAA estimates that there will be 12 to 17 named storms of at least 39 mph, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph, including a minor likelihood of 1 to 4 major hurricanes of category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
What is the West African Monsoon?
The West African Monsoon is a seasonal wind system that affects West Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. It is characterized by the sudden onset of rainfall during May-June and lasts until September-October.
How Can NOAA’s Forecasts Help Communities Prepare For Dangerous Weather Conditions?
NOAA forecasts provide early and accurate warnings to help communities prepare for hurricanes by taking proactive measures such as establishing evacuation centers, educating the public on safety measures, and informing stakeholders about the ongoing NOAA forecast so that everyone can be prepared for the hurricane season.
