Near-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted for 2023 by NOAA
NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center are predicting a near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic for the year 2023. With the hurricane season spanning from June 1 to November 30, this year’s outlook predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
Predictions for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5), which have winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA is 70% confident in these ranges.
Factors Affecting Hurricane Development
Competing factors driving this year’s forecast for a near-normal season include some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it. After three hurricane seasons with La Nina, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. However, favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin, such as an above-normal west African monsoon and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, could fuel storm development. These factors are part of the longer-term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions conducive to hurricane development.
Upgrades and Improvements for Forecasting
NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements this summer to enhance hurricane forecasting capabilities. NOAA, in collaboration with the National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center, has developed a new operational hurricane forecast model called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), which has a 10-15% improvement in track forecasts over existing operational models. The Probabilistic Storm Surge model, upgraded in May 2023, advances storm surge forecasting for the contiguous US and new forecasts for surge, tide, and waves for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. NOAA will also extend the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20%, making it possible to improve and run more complex forecast models. Other upgrades and new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting include an expanded Tropical Weather Outlook graphic and an increased forecast range from five to seven days.
The Importance of NOAA’s Data and Expertise
With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during, and after a hurricane has never been more crucial, says NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. This data includes improved models and forecast ranges, allowing communities more time to prepare for incoming storms, and probabilistic storm surge modeling to help communities prepare for all potential outcomes. Emergency managers and residents are urged to review their emergency plan and supply kit as the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than the past several years.
2023 Atlantic Storm Names
The official names for the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclones have been selected by the World Meteorological Organization. An alphabetical list of the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names includes Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney.
Conclusion
NOAA’s near-normal hurricane activity predictions for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season offer some respite compared to recent years. Despite the competing factors that drive it, there is still the potential for an active hurricane season, and NOAA has risen to meet this challenge with a range of upgraded tools and forecast enhancements. With these upgrades, emergency managers, communities, and residents alike can take more time to prepare for hurricane threats this season.
FAQs
1. How does NOAA make hurricane predictions?
NOAA leverages a range of tools and data to make predictions for the upcoming hurricane season. These tools include satellite and land-and-ocean-based sensors, aircraft reconnaissance missions, and advanced computer modeling. NOAA’s predictions are based on the analysis of several competing factors that affect hurricane development.
2. What improvements has NOAA made to its hurricane forecasting capabilities?
NOAA has implemented several upgrades and improvements to enhance its hurricane forecasting capabilities. These upgrades include increasing the capacity of its operational supercomputing system, developing a new operational hurricane forecast model called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), and upgrading the Probabilistic Storm Surge model.
3. What does a near-normal hurricane season mean?
A near-normal hurricane season refers to a season with hurricane activity that falls near the median over the long-term average. In the Atlantic, this means predicting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes.
4. What is the impact of changing climate on hurricane development?
The changing climate has been linked to more frequent and severe weather events, including hurricanes. However, the impact is complex, and the frequency, severity, and location of hurricane events vary widely based on a range of factors. NOAA’s forecasts are based on analysis of these factors to deliver the most accurate predictions for the upcoming hurricane season.
5. How can residents prepare for an incoming hurricane?
Residents can prepare for an incoming hurricane by developing an emergency plan, gathering emergency supplies, and staying informed. This includes establishing evacuation routes and destinations, securing your home, preparing an emergency kit, and ensuring that your insurance and medical plans are up to date. During an emergency, staying informed through reliable sources such as the NOAA National Hurricane Center and local news sources is critical to making informed decisions to protect yourself and your loved ones.
