NOAA predicts near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic for the 2023 season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center predict a near-normal season in 2023.
Predictions for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season
According to NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, there is:
- A 40% chance of a near-normal season
- A 30% chance of an above-normal season
- A 30% chance of a below-normal season
The agency forecasts a range of 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes. 1 to 4 of these hurricanes may become major hurricanes, with category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA has 70% confidence in these ranges.
Conditions that could impact the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season.
- El Nino: NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.
- African easterly waves: There is potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms
- Sea surface temperatures: Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea can create more energy to fuel storm development.
- Long-term variability: Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development have been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.
NOAA’s technological advancements to support hurricane forecasting
- Scientific and technological advancements: NOAA’s investments in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling this year will enable the agency to deliver more accurate forecasts.
- Supercomputing upgrade: NOAA will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20%. This increase in computing capability will enable NOAA to improve and run more complex forecast models.
- New hurricane forecast model: In late June, the operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. It has a 10 to 15% improvement in track forecasts over existing models.
- Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade: Advances storm surge forecasting for the contiguous U.S. and new forecasts for surge, tide and waves for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
- Extended Tropical Weather Outlook graphic: The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphic now shows tropical cyclone formation potential from seven days instead of five.
The significance of hurricane forecasting in a changing climate
NOAA provides the data and expertise to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during, and after a hurricane. With a changing climate, this has never been more crucial in helping communities prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes.
Conclusion
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be near-normal, with 40% chances of it being so. NOAA’s advanced technological upgrades will enable more accurate forecasts, ensuring communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to hurricanes. As climate change continues to affect the weather patterns across the world, accurate hurricane forecasts have never been more critical for communities living in prone areas.
FAQ
1. How can NOAA accurately predict hurricane activity?
NOAA uses various scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, extended-range forecasting, and probabilistic surge modeling, among others, to improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.
2. Are there any hot spots for hurricane landfall in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
According to WESH 2 weather reporter Eric Burris, Florida’s east and west coasts, the Carolina coast, South Texas, and the Mid-Atlantic are at the greatest risk of seeing landfalling tropical systems in 2023.
3. Does El Nino suppress Atlantic hurricane activity?
Yes, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.
4. What is the Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC)?
The LRC is a technique that uses the past to predict the future. Long-term repeating features are clues to where storm systems will reach peak strength, where they will be their weakest, and how long they will persist.
5. Why are accurate hurricane forecasts more crucial now than ever?
The changing climate has a significant impact on weather patterns across the world, leading to severe hurricanes and natural calamities. Without accurate hurricane forecasts, communities cannot prepare well for the destructive economic and ecological impacts of these natural disasters.
